If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our blog.
The book is closing for 2022 in the grains with everyone wondering what will be in store for 2023. With the uncertainty of events in the world today, it would not be a great surprise if geopolitical incidents overshadow fundamental factors. Meanwhile, all eyes are currently on weather in South America as there are some dry areas. While this has been supportive for corn, exports could be more of a concern. Last week, inspections were lackluster at 19.8 MB. They must average 47.2 MB on a weekly basis to reach USDA’s projection of 2.075 BB. However, the catch is that we have yet to see a shipment this high for the season. While there has been a slight uptick in exports the past couple of weeks, they are running 35.8 percent below the five-year average. That said, a serious condition will have to develop in South America to sustain price strength.
All eyes in soybeans are focused on weather in South America. Conab has left their December production estimate for Brazil unchanged at a record 153.7 million tons but forewarns of some possible dry areas developing. Meanwhile, in other matters, export inspections last week fell below the previous week at 67.5 MB with China taking 42.8 MB. This is the smallest shipment they have received since mid-October. Since early November, shipments to China have fallen 23.2 percent while U.S. exports, in general, have declined 20.3 percent. As mentioned before, when exports peak, they fall, on average, 65-85 percent through the end of the marketing year.
With the winter wheat crop in dormancy, there is not a lot of fresh news. The southern Plains has received moisture recently but is still plagued by drought conditions. Meanwhile, conditions are favorable in Europe, Russia, and Australia. In other developments, exports remain weak. Inspections last week were meager at 8.0 MB, but there has been an uptick in shipments the past few weeks. However, the pace is running 25.4 percent below the five-year average. The bottom line in wheat is that it will continue to meet stiff competition from our competitors.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.