On The Money Grain Commentary 12-22-22

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Corn Outlook:

We are in the midst of the holiday season and interest in the grains is largely absent. Traders are closing the book for 2022 and will not return until January. When they come back, one of two things will have to occur in corn to stir the bull’s interest. One is for the dryness to worsen in Argentina, or exports to catch on fire. Dryness has become a concern in Argentina, but showers are forecast at the end of the week which could provide relief and improve conditions. Meanwhile, exports have seen an uptick during the past three weeks but catching up is another matter. Last week, inspections were a marketing year high at 29.2 MB, but must average 47.6 MB to reach USDA’s target of 2.075 BB which seems like a dream. The bottom line is that corn needs a story on the get-go after the holidays to get the bulls aroused.

Bean Outlook:

Soybeans continued to be underpinned from weather concerns in Argentina. However, any shortcoming will likely be made up from expectations of a record crop in Brazil. Meanwhile, exports are slackening. Inspections last week were 59.5 MB, the lowest seen since early October. Shipments to China were 40.7 MB with the pace down 31.9 percent since peaking in November. Meanwhile, overall shipments have backed off 27.5 percent. The bottom line in soybeans is that conditions in Argentina will have to worsen to support prices as exports are deteriorating.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat is finding support from Artic weather forecast in the Plains and Midwest during the next few days. Meanwhile, dry conditions persist in the southern Plains but are favorable in Europe and Australia. Exports have improved in recent weeks but are not setting the world on fire. Inspections last week were 11.1 MB but must average 14.1 MB to reach USDA’s projection of 775 MB. However, we have not seen a shipment of this magnitude since early October. Long story short is that there is too much competition

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