On The Money Grain Commentary 8-26-21

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Corn Outlook:

Weather has mostly past its shelf life in corn. However, questions remain regarding yield potential and production, but the answers will not be known until the combines roll at harvest. Once it begins, and yield reports are heard, the focus will turn to demand and prospects in South America. Meanwhile, the marketing year is winding down for corn with inspections last week at 28.5 MB. Cumulative shipments this season are running at 2.562 BB versus USDA’s target of 2.775 BB. Shipments to China have fallen 45 percent from their peak in early June. Shipments to them are expected to remain unchanged from a year ago. While we are not setting the world on fire in exports, they tend to improve from September-October until April-June. Looking ahead, the bulls may take a wait and see approach in corn until the next issue piques their interest.

Bean Outlook:

There could still be some weather issues in soybeans, but the clock is ticking. Concerns of an early frost will soon be the next threat on everyone’s mind. Like corn, we will not have a handle on yield and production until the combines head to the field at harvest. Meanwhile, exports continue to lag. Inspections last week were below the previous week at 7.8 MB. Cumulative shipments are running at 2.163 BB versus USDA’s projection of 2.260 BB. China will continue to have interest, but the USDA lowered their imports 1.0 million tons to 101.0 million. If we follow the norm, shipments will likely rise until November from where they generally peak. Once harvest gets into full swing, the focus will soon turn to South America and prospective plantings.

Wheat Outlook:

While most associate China with purchases of soybeans and corn, they also showing interest in wheat. Last week, export inspections were a marketing year high at 24.1 MB with China taking 25.8 percent of shipments. In other developments, spring wheat harvest is beginning to wind down at 77 percent done compared to the average of 55 percent. The rapid pace of harvest is attributed to low yields. While wheat may follow corn and soybeans, it is beginning to trade on its own merits.

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