On The Money Grain Commentary 9-2-21

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Corn Outlook:

The primary event in the grains this week is the trade disruption caused by Hurricane Ida at the Gulf, and how soon operations and shipments resume. It will probably be at least two weeks before power is restored, possibly longer for some facilities. Meanwhile, questions remain whether yields will meet USDA’s estimate of 174.6 bpa. While there are higher forecasts from private sources, we will not know the answers until the combines are in the fields. In other developments, the marketing year is winding down for exports with inspections last week at 22.1 MB. Cumulative shipments are 2.588 BB versus USDA’s estimate of 2.775 BB. Looking at Brazil, they expect planted corn acres to be up 3.9 percent to 50.8 million acres. Their exports are expected to rise from 23.5 million tons in 2021 to 39.0 million in 2022.

Bean Outlook:

Weather may still be an issue for soybeans, but it is probably limited. The next weather-related concern will be the possibility of an early frost. Right now, the main worry is the impact that Hurricane Ida will have on shipments out of the Gulf. Shipments to the Pacific Rim Region and China could be diverted to the Pacific northwest ports. In other developments, USDA’s yield estimate for harvest is 50.0 bpa with some private forecasts slightly higher. Once the combines are in the fields, we will have a better handle. Looking at exports, the marketing year is ending with inspections last week at 13.8 MB. Cumulative shipments are 2.178 BB versus USDA’s forecast of 2.260 BB. Brazil is looking at a 3.6 percent increase in soybean acres to 98.5 million.

Wheat Outlook:

Statistics Canada reports wheat production at 22.9 million tons, down 35 percent from a year ago and the lowest production in 14 years. While this offers support, the market has been pulled lower from weakness in the other grains, and Egypt accepting tenders from Ukraine and Romania. Looking at exports, inspections last week were small at 11.6 MB. However, they should average 16.7 MB on a weekly basis to achieve USDA’s target of 875 MB. In other developments, spring wheat harvest is winding down at 88 percent complete versus the average of 71 percent.

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